A key component to managing the Covid-19 pandemic is frequent, rapid, and routine testing of a large number of Americans — including those without symptoms. With public discussion of this issue has ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

https://doi.org/10.4169/college.math.j.43.3.251 https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.4169/college.math.j.43.3.251 Abstract To compute the probability of having a disease ...

You're sitting in the doctor's office waiting for the result of a test. The test will tell you whether you have a disease you really don't want to have. As you wait, it seems as if the whole world is ...

Bayes factors comparing two or more competing hypotheses are often estimated by constructing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler to explore the joint space of the hypotheses. To obtain efficient ...

In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...