Expert judgment elicitation involves the structured collection and quantification of specialists’ beliefs about uncertain parameters when empirical data are limited or absent. By translating ...

Forecasting epidemics of infectious diseases is notoriously hard, but the potential value to society for cracking that scientific nut is tremendous. Now a new approach is on the scene. The traditional ...

In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to address the critical lack of any or appropriate data in many areas where complex ...

Preparedness for and response to a nuclear emergency are in large part technical, physical undertakings. They involve equipment such as pumps, generators, containment vessels, and helicopters. But ...

SANTA CLARA, CA / ACCESS Newswire / February 4, 2026 / Expert Intelligence™, a startup building AI systems that automate expert decision-making in regulated laboratory environments, today announced it ...

Pearl.com evaluation of 25 models finds leading AI systems align with experts only ~70% of the time, with some widely used models dropping to ~20% in certain domains. Top AI models align with experts ...

Imagine being a policymaker at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. You have to decide which actions to recommend, how much risk to tolerate and what sacrifices to ask your citizens to bear. Who ...

Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment was a groundbreaking look at whether political experts really are expert, as judged by their success at making ...

A while back, I came across an article titled “Trust the Experts? It’s a Bad Bet,” and at first glance it seemed to echo a familiar claim: that expertise itself has become less trustworthy[1]. But ...

As the 2018 market outlooks begin to flood my inbox I'm reminded of one of the best books written on the topic of expert forecasting abilities — Expert Political Judgment by Philip Tetlock. Tetlock ...